DECİSİON PROCESS İN SCİENTİFİC RESEARCH, AND BAYES' THEOREM

Abstract

In scientific research and especially in clarifying the patient's situation, the decision process is very important. In most cases, there is not enough medical data to provide the patient with the correct diagnosis. In such cases, the physician has to decide by taking advantage of his / her past experiences, illnesses and medical records. In this process, which often does not involve a systematic study, hindsight helps past experiences. It is not enough to rely solely on hardships and past experiences on what to do in the decision-making process. Bayes' theorem makes the researcher more realistic by using conditional probabilities in cases where it is difficult to make decisions and where there is not enough data. In this sense, Bayes' theorem, which is an advanced method of probability, can be used in all areas with probability. In this study, it was discussed how to use the Bayes 'theorem to determine the test sensitivities of the Bayes' theorem, and to use the Bayesian networks to decide on the disease. We think that the probability results obtained are quite different from the rough probability results,and that this method used in most studies is beneficial in the decision process, and that making the right decision will prevent the loss of labor and time.