Global Natural Gas Demand Projections under Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

Being the cleanest burning fossil fuel, natural gas provides a number of environmental benefits compared to other fossil fuels, particularly in terms of air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it contributes for almost one-third of total global energy demand growth through the last decade, and that fastest growing fossil fuel more than any other fuel source. Due to Covid pandemic, global natural gas consumption has fallen in 2020 in major markets even, i.e. declined by approx. 4% in 2020 and reached 3.840 bcm. In the study interviews with energy experts/managers are performed and fuzzy multi objective mathematical model (by using fuzzy AHP, fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy VIKOR) is developed to calculate World's natural gas demand under high and low demand scenarios. By the help of model, the usage of natural gas amount in World by regions between 2020 and 2040 is calculated. In Scenario-High it will increase by approx. 47 % between 2020 and 2040 and reached 5.650 bcm in 2040. In Scenario-Low it will increase by approx. 18,5 % from 2020 to 2040 and reached 4.550 bcm in 2040. It is the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2030 since it is clean energy source. In Scenario-High natural gas demand by region is calculated/projected as follows: in 2030 North America 1250 bcm, Central and South America 250 bcm, Europe 650 bcm, Middle East 750 bcm, Eurasia 650 bcm, Asia Pacific 1250 bcm. And in 2040 it is calculated as follows: North America 1350 bcm, Central and South America 300 bcm, Europe 650 bcm, Middle East 920 bcm, Eurasia 680 bcm, Asia Pacific 1750 bcm. The study shows that EU’s, US’s and Word’s decarbonizing energy aim, i.e. curbing the emissions trajectory to net zero, by 2050 is nearly impossible. EU’s and some US states’ goal to reach zero carbon emissions by 2050 is postponed.