Turkey 's Natural Gas Demand Projections

Özet

Today natural gas is the type of energy that we use/need in our daily life, i.e. heating, electricity generation, cooling… Turkey’s energy demand is increasing approx. 8% per year that is one of the highest rates in the world. And among other energy sources used in Turkey, i.e. coal, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal…, natural gas is the fastest growing energy source used in Turkey. In Turkey the usage of natural gas was 0.5 bcm in 1987, in 1990 it was 6 bcm, and in 2018 it reached approx. 49.3 bcm. Although Turkey imports fossil fuels/energy sources, in all scenario Turkey’s natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in the future. Natural gas that is used in Turkey is imported from Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar by signing long term “Take or Pay” contracts and these contracts constitute a heavy economic load on Turkey's economy. In addition MoE’s (Turkey’s Ministry of Energy) one of the energy strategy/aim is to become a natural gas trading hub in the region. To reach these aims, energy contracts should be planned in detail and correctly. In the study interviews with energy experts/managers are performed and fuzzy mathematical model (by using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS) is developed to calculate Turkey's natural gas demand under high and low scenarios. By the help of model, the usage of natural gas amount in Turkey between 2020 and 2030 is calculated. In the study, between 2020 and 2030 under high demand scenario natural gas usage in Turkey will be increased by 35% and reached to appox. 79 bcm, and under low demand scenario Turkey’s total natural gas demand will be decreased by approx. 7% and reached to approx. 40 bcm. By considering these scenarios Turkey is developing energy projects/contracts to become lead energy transit country and new energy contracts/projects could help underpin an effective and valuable regional storage hub that serves both Turkish and EU.